Top Prospect
Alert - J.J. Hardy
DOB: 8/19/82, Age: 20, Height: 6’2’’, Weight:
180, Bats: R, Throws: R. Acquired: Brewers - Drafted in the 2nd Round of
the 2001 Draft (Sabino HS, Tucson, AZ). 2002 Stats: (High-A - High Desert)
.293 AVG, 335 AB, 19 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 9 SB, 19 BB, 38 K, .327 OBP, .409
SLG; (AA - Huntsville) .228 AVG, 145 AB, 7 2B, 1 HR, 1 SB, 9 BB, 19 K,
.269 OBP, .297 SLG. 2003 Stats: (AA - Huntsville) .286 AVG, 290 AB, 21 2B,
0 3B, 10 HR, 1 SB, 38 BB, 37 K, .369 OBP, .462 SLG.
J. J. Hardy is the
shortstop for the prospect-laden Huntsville Stars in the Southern League.
Hardy, a second round draft choice back in 2001, has blossomed this year
in his second trip through AA, showing a lot more patience and power than
anyone expected he would this early in his career. Hardy’s best tool has
always been his glove. Universally, scouts say that he could have handled
the majors on the defensive side of the ball from the moment he was
drafted. He doesn’t have unbelievable range, but positions himself
extremely well. He is as sure-handed as they come, and his arm is
excellent (he was clocked at 94 mph from the mound during his high-school
career). At the plate, Hardy has the potential to be a decent hitter, but
probably not an outstanding one. His power is coming along nicely, as his
XBH/AB ratio has gone from 16 to 13 to 9.5 in his last three stops.
Huntsville is not a hitters’ park either, so the numbers have some
credence. I wouldn’t expect him to turn into a 30+ HR hitter by maturity,
but he could conceivably hit around 20 at this peak. He doesn’t project to
be a high average hitter either, but again, he should be decent - perhaps
in the .270-.280 range. His plate discipline is what has intrigued me this
season, even more so than the power increase. After walking every 17.1 at
bats last year between two levels, Hardy has cut that rate to once every
7.6 at bats this year. He has posted a near-.370 OBP as a 20 year old in
AA, which is no small feat. If he can maintain these gains, Hardy projects
to be a great number two hitter behind David Krynzel in the 2005 Brewers
batting order. On the bases, Hardy once again grades out at a bit better
than average. I would not be at all surprised to see him post a 20/20
season sometime before his 30th birthday, but I am not certain that he
could ever attain 30 in either category. He is, across-the-board, a solid
player, but nothing more.
The Brewers may be a
laughingstock at the MLB level, they may be indirectly owned by the
commissioner in a flagrant conflict of interest, and they may be past the
20-year point since their last bout with relevance, but the Brewers do
indeed have a farm system now, something that could not have been said
five years ago. Getting past the organizational soldiers that inhabit the
AAA ranks, the Brewers’ AA affiliate in Huntsville boasts one of the more
intriguing teams in the minors. Their lineup consists of Krynzel, Hardy,
Corey Hart, and Brad Nelson, and their rotation holds Mike Jones, Ben
Hendrickson, Ben Diggins, Pedro Liriano, and until recently, Luis
Martinez. High Desert doesn’t have an awful lot to interest anyone, but
down in Beloit you have Callix Crabbe, Prince Fielder, Tony Gwynn, and
Manny Parra. You can easily go past the top 10 for the Brewers and still
find some players that have a very good chance to make the majors, without
even discounting for the organization in question (and thus the spots
available). As far as Hardy’s chances, there won’t be room for all of the
pitching prospects that the Brewers have, but I think there will be room
for every one of the hitters. Hardy only has Bill Hall to contend with,
and Hall, although toolsy, is a completely undisciplined hitter who is
much shakier on defense than Hardy, so unless his game changes quickly, he
won’t be much of a threat to Hardy’s claim on the job. A good comparison
for Hardy would be Jay Bell, a solid player with a long MLB career, but
decidedly not a star. Hardy may very well get a cup of coffee at the end
of this season, but probably won’t claim the starting job until late 2004
or 2005 for good. The Brewers may actually move into the upper half of the
division in the next three seasons or so, provided they don’t do anything
to ruin their chances between now and then.
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