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Top Prospect Alert - Juan Silvestre

By Schuyler Dombroske

DOB: 1/10/78, Age: 23, Height: 5’11’’, Weight: 180, Bats: R, Throws: R. Acquired: Mariners - Signed out of the Dominican Republic on 7/4/94. 2000 Stats: (High-A - Lancaster) .304 AVG, 506 AB, 15 2B, 3 3B, 30 HR, 9 SB, 60 BB, 126 K, .381 OBP, .524 SLG. 2001 Stats: (AA - San Antonio) .228 AVG, 372 AB, 13 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 0 SB, 21 BB, 113 K, .270 OBP, .328 SLG.

Juan Silvestre was one of the most disappointing prospects in baseball this season. Coming off a 2000 season where he was a Minor League Player of the Year candidate, the 23-year old was sent to the Texas League to open the season, with expectations that he could be in the PCL by the All-Star break. Instead of garnering a promotion, Silvestre spent the entire year trying to get untracked. His statistics dropped in every single offensive category of importance, and at age 23, Silvestre’s status as a prospect is certainly in doubt. Juan Silvestre is a prospect only on the strength of his hitting, with average talents at best on the bases and in the field. He showed the ability to hit for average and power in the California League in 2000, but many scouts questioned his ability to hit in a less-friendly environment. Both of those talents were evident only in sporadic fashion this year. Like many Latin hitters, he has always been rather impatient at the plate. In 1999 and 2000, he improved tremendously in his ability to take pitches and work the count, but all of those gains evaporated in 2001. (His walk totals for the past 4 years are: 22, 47, 60, 21) A .598 OPS for a poor-fielding corner outfielder is extremely poor, and Silvestre compounded his problems by striking out 113 times in 372 at-bats. Juan is not big, so his power numbers were of questionable continuity as he moved up the ladder to begin with. No one, however, expected him to revert to 1998 form so quickly.

With Ichiro and Cameron firmly entrenched in Seattle, there is one long-term spot in the Mariner outfield up for grabs. At this point, I’d have to think that Chris Snelling and Shin-Soo Choo offer more potential for that spot. Silvestre shouldn’t be written off just yet, as his 2001 campaign looks eerily similar to his 1998 season in Wisconsin. I would expect him to start back at San Antonio this season, and he may very well spend another entire year there. I think he will improve, but as I said before, I don’t think he’s the long-term answer to the Seattle LF situation. My expectations for Silvestre involve a 4th OF/part-time DH role starting around 2004. A mid-to-late career Wil Cordero is probably a good comparison for his potential.

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