DOB: 8/28/80, Age: 21, Height: 6’6’’, Weight:
200, Bats: L, Throws: R. Acquired: Phillies - Drafted in the 9th Round of
the 1998 Draft (Valley View HS, Moreno Valley, CA). 2001 Stats: (High-A -
Clearwater) 9-9, 3.90 ERA, 118 IP, 137 H, 4 HR, 49 BB, 109 K. 2002 Stats:
(AA - Reading) 6-4, 3.20 ERA, 171 IP, 150 H, 11 HR, 53 BB, 132
K.
Ryan Madson is slowly making his
way through the Phillies system, and is exhibiting enough success at each
level to be considered a reasonable rotation prospect. Madson, coming off
a tremendous year at Reading in which he was in the top three in the
league in wins (1), ERA (2), innings (3), and strikeouts (2), is a member
of the “towering trio” of right-handed starters that the Phillies picked
up in the 1998 and 1999 drafts (the other two being Brett Myers and Brad
Baisley). With his stuff and makeup, he is going to be the middle one of
the three in terms of projected success. Madson throws his fastball in the
91-95 mph range, and offsets that with a good overhand curve and a vastly
improved changeup. His control has improved tremendously this year,
dropping from 3.6 BB/9 last year to 2.8 at Reading, and he remained stingy
with the longball, allowing less than 0.6 HR/9. He has the makings of an
innings-eater, with sound mechanics and good control as his attributes.
Before everyone gets too excited about a future ace in the making,
Madson’s campaign at Reading is a bit deceiving, in my opinion. Pitchers,
in general, have a great deal of control over walks and strikeouts. They
have a slightly smaller degree of control over home runs, and a debatably
smaller degree of control over base hits. Examining the difference between
his 2001 and 2002 years, one finds that his BB/9 total dropped by roughly
0.8, his K/9 total dropped about 1.2, and his HR/9 figure rose by around
0.3. Therefore, it can be determined that, on average, Ryan Madson was
around the plate more this year than last. His H/9 number, however,
dropped over 2.0, which is exactly the opposite of what you would expect
to have happened. Perhaps his defense was substantially better at Reading
than it was at Clearwater, or maybe pitchers can control the number of
“hits that aren’t homers” more closely than most data would have you
believe, but my opinion is that Madson’s year had a fair share of luck
involved. His statistics make him appear to be an ace-caliber prospect,
when in reality, he is probably more of a mid-rotation guy.
The Phillies have
had a young core for a while now, but trading away Scott Rolen dealt a
major blow to the short-term rebuilding hopes. They have the makings of an
excellent young outfield in Burrell, Byrd, and Abreu, and Rollins and
Anderson are reasonable players as well. The corners are fairly weak under
the current alignment, but Jeremy Giambi could solve half of the problem
rather quickly. Chase Utley is assumed to be the intermediate-term
solution at the hot corner, and Mike Lieberthal might still have enough
life to help out behind the plate for a few more years. The rotation
picture is a bit more muddled, which does not bode particularly well for
Ryan Madson. Vicente Padilla looked absolutely dominant at times in a very
solid campaign, Randy Wolf bounced back with a great year (and he’s a
lefty), Brett Myers is the anointed ace of the future, Bud Smith was the
major booty from the Rolen deal, and Brandon Duckworth is reasonably
entrenched as well, albeit less so than the other four. A moderately
effective Terry Adams, a rehabbing Robert Person, and the youngster Brad
Baisley are also hanging around as potential options. All of this means
that Ryan Madson does not have a clear path to a rotation slot, but the
Phillies are still bad enough so that they might not mind giving everyone
a chance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up fifteen starts or so
in Philadelphia next year, and I think he is good enough to be in their
rotation long-term. Madson, in my opinion, is going to become a slightly
less effective version of Ben Sheets, which should be good enough to be a
third or fourth starter for the Phillies in the future.