DOB: 8/31/79, Age: 22, Height: 5’10’’,
Weight: 183, Bats: B, Throws: R. Acquired: Orioles - Drafted in the 6th
Round of the 1998 Draft (Seminole HS, Sanford, FL). 2000 Stats: (High-A -
Frederick) .236 AVG, 457 AB, 21 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 81 SB, 67 BB, 106 K, .348
OBP, .309 SLG. 2001 Stats: (High-A - Frederick) .250 AVG, 84 AB, 3 2B, 1
3B, 3 HR, 14 SB, 13 BB, 23 K, .351 OBP, .417 SLG. (AA - Bowie) .291 AVG,
254 AB, 14 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 29 SB, 34 BB, 60 K, .380 OBP, .402 SLG. (AAA -
Rochester) .256 AVG, 133 AB, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 11 SB, 11 BB, 30 K, .313
OBP, .353 SLG. (Maj. - Baltimore) .174 AVG, 23 AB, 2 2B, 3 SB, 3 BB, 8 K,
.269 OBP, .261 SLG.
Tim Raines Jr. is a player that
really surprised me this season. I expected him to end up like “insert
minor league stolen base champion here”, but now it appears that might end
up having a chance to become Tony Womack. As an aside, being Tony Womack
is not as bad as popular opinion suggests, as long as you don’t bat
leadoff. Being Tony Womack also lends itself to a better lifestyle than
being Alex Requena, so Raines actually did a lot for himself this year.
Tim’s main skills are those of his father in less abundance: drawing
walks, playing good defense, and running with abandon. Before this season
I expected his eventual role to be that of a fourth OF, batting .200-.210
with no power, an OBP of .290-.300, and a handful of steals. What changed
my mind (a little) was his improvement after being promoted to AA this
year, where he hit 291/380/402 in almost half a season. The promotion to
AAA was probably unnecessary, and the promotion to the majors was
publicity-driven, but A to AA is a difficult jump for a man of Raines’
skills. He wasn’t even embarrassing in Rochester for 133 at-bats, and was
still successful on almost 80% of his steal attempts. His 9 home runs at
four levels nearly doubled his previous career output, and his 24 doubles
tied a career high. 57 stolen bases wasn’t close to the 81 in 2000, but
his success rate stayed solid, an important stat for a leadoff hitter. All
in all, it was a rather successful year for the career of Tim Raines
Jr.
After this season, I would
upgrade my prediction for his major league ability about 20-25 batting
average points, which may be enough to make him a starting CF and 8th or
9th place hitter on the Orioles in a year or two. He is still young, so he
could continue to improve. I don’t think he’ll ever be mentioned in the
same breath as his father as far as talent, but he could be better than
Luis Matos. There are two things that Raines needs to do: make more
contact, and only bat right-handed. He has only been switch-hitting a few
years, so I would expect the experiment to continue at least one more
year. He should start at AAA next season, and I would still say there is
only a 50/50 chance of Tim picking up 1000 major league at-bats in his
career. He likely will play some in Baltimore next season no matter what,
and unless they make some major signings, may very well get a crack at the
starting CF job at some point during the year. The bottom line is: I’m
still not sold on him being better than Gary Matthews Jr. or Garry Maddox
Jr., which isn’t going to help most teams unless he’s their fifth
outfielder.